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Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Season 2 Episode 32
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March 25, 2024

Semiconductors and geopolitics

Computers are not just on your desk. They're in your phones, your cars, your microwave. Even washing machines are now computers. And the demand for the computer chips that these products use is an increasing focus not just for investors but also for governments globally. In this episode, we discuss how this intervention is impacting the big players and where the market is headed with our lead analyst for Nvidia and Intel, Raj Joshi.
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Season 2 Episode 31
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March 13, 2024

Corporate default rate will ease in 2024 while remaining near its long-term average

The rate will likely decline to 3.6% by the end of 2024, from a 5% peak in January, as central banks begin lowering policy rates.
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Season 2 Episode 30
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March 4, 2024

Narrowing gender gaps in labour markets and on boards will strengthen credit quality

Female labour participation rates have more than recovered losses sustained during the pandemic. The associated boost in economic activity and support to households is positive for a range of issuers.
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Season 2 Episode 29
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February 26, 2024

Refinancing needs and valuation gaps increase risks for some European leveraged finance companies

Around €300 billion of European spec-grade corporate debt needs refinancing by 2026, but uncertain market access, slower growth and higher interest rates increase risks for some lower rated entities.
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Season 2 Episode 28
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February 12, 2024

Unraveling the recent sovereign default wave

Since 2020, there have been 20 sovereign defaults, surpassing the total in the entire previous decade. What factors led to this point, where are they concentrated and will they continue?
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Season 2 Episode 27
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January 29, 2024

Elections heighten risks for the green investment boom

Strong policies, innovation and falling costs are set to propel green capital spending this year. However, a busy election calendar and slowing economic growth could temper that momentum.
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Season 2 Episode 26
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December 15, 2023

Binance fine is a sign of tougher crypto market scrutiny

A $4 billion fine for the cryptocurrency exchange Binance indicates greater regulatory focus that could bring more security and confidence to the crypto sector.
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Season 2 Episode 25
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December 7, 2023

China's negative outlook explained

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the factors underpinning our recent decision to change the outlook on the Chinese sovereign rating to negative.
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Season 2 Episode 24
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November 29, 2023

Israel-Hamas conflict: scenarios and effects

The conflict's credit effects should be limited to Israeli issuers, but an escalation that disrupts global energy and financial markets would widen the scope significantly.
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Season 2 Episode 23
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November 20, 2023

Unpacking our negative outlook on the US sovereign rating

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the reasons behind our outlook change, factors supporting the Aaa rating and opportunities to slow a decline in fiscal strength.
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Season 2 Episode 22
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November 14, 2023

Higher-for-longer rates cloud economic and credit outlook for 2024

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss our forecasts for G20 economic growth and inflation next year, and what this means for companies, lenders and governments.
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Season 2 Episode 21
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November 6, 2023

The tide is turning in global shipping

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss what is driving the recent fall in freight rates and what this could mean for the sector’s efforts to decarbonize and the global economy.
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Season 2 Episode 20
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October 16, 2023

Some sovereigns’ debt-reduction efforts will face mounting obstacles

Our forecasts suggest a decline in debt/GDP ratios for around 80 of the 140 sovereigns we rate next year. However, social and environmental demands, coupled with higher-for-longer interest rates, pose larger fiscal challenges for some.
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Season 2 Episode 19
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October 4, 2023

US dollar will remain at the centre of a more multipolar world

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the narrative around the dollar’s demise, the implications for the global economy and the viability of its rivals.
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Season 2 Episode 18
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September 25, 2023

What artificial intelligence means for companies and governments

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the hype around generative AI, which sectors and countries stand to gain most, and the risks they need to manage.
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Season 2 Episode 17
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September 4, 2023

Higher interest rates will test the shadow banking sector

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the world of shadow banking, exploring its recent rapid growth, where we think the risks are, the challenges facing regulators, and the potential threats to financial stability.
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Season 2 Episode 16
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August 2, 2023

Population ageing is set to reshape Asia's credit landscape

Barring gains in productivity, participation rates, skills, education and experience, the coming drag on growth and public finances will be significant.
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Season 2 Episode 15
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June 26, 2023

Aging will lead to a resurgence in labor shortages

On this episode of the Big Picture podcast, our analysts explore the situation in labor markets and its broader implications for the global economy and corporate credit quality.
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Season 2 Episode 14
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May 30, 2023

Where are the biggest risks in commercial real estate?

As higher borrowing costs and structural shifts compound cyclical trends in commercial real estate, our analysts explain where the risks lie and how they could affect lenders and the broader economy.
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Season 2 Episode 13
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May 8, 2023

What will it mean if higher interest rates are here to stay?

Policy rates may be approaching their peaks, but central bankers are unlikely to change course anytime soon. In this episode of The Big Picture podcast, we discuss what this means for credit risk.
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Season 2 Episode 12
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March 21, 2023

Closing the gender gap would add trillions of dollars to global GDP

The underutilization of women in the workforce has a huge cost in terms of lost productivity and economic output around the world. What progress has been made and what will it take for women to achieve parity in labor force participation, pay and management roles?
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Season 2 Episode 11
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March 9, 2023

Mark Zandi on the looming US debt ceiling drama

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host William Foster to discuss the consequences of debt limit brinkmanship for the US sovereign, the economy and global financial markets.
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Season 2 Episode 10
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February 22, 2023

Europe’s economic challenges are growing as the war in Ukraine reaches a grim milestone

One year after Russia invaded Ukraine, European economies are confronting a plethora of challenges and a transformed geopolitical landscape. We discuss the trade-offs for Europe as it seeks long-term replacements for Russian gas supplies while keeping decarbonization plans on track, the prospects for certain countries in stabilizing their government debt levels, and how European policymakers are responding to the US Inflation Reduction Act.
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Season 2 Episode 9
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February 7, 2023

Why the pandemic-era housing booms did not last

Home prices are falling in the US and Europe after a surge during COVID-19, as interest rates rise at a rapid clip and economic growth slows. On this episode, we discuss what’s different about this housing market downturn, particularly the big changes in mortgage lending since the global financial crisis, and why the credit performance of outstanding European mortgages will likely be much more uneven in the current higher interest rate environment compared with mortgages in the US. We also discuss why many US consumers will still struggle with home affordability even as home prices come down.
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Season 2 Episode 8
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January 17, 2023

ESG credit risks will grow and evolve in 2023

ESG issues will come into sharp relief this year as corporate debt issuers grapple with growing scrutiny over their decarbonization plans, social risks intensify and the rules of the road for ESG investments evolve – all in an environment of heightened macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss the highlights of our recently published ESG Outlook and what are the key ESG trends that will shape credit quality in 2023.
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Season 2 Episode 7
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December 13, 2022

Is the age of globalization over?

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Season 2 Episode 6
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November 22, 2022

Post-COP27, focus turns to climate financing

On this episode, we assess the major policy announcements from the COP27 climate summit and what they mean for the sovereign and corporate credit environment and for climate risk modeling. We discuss the “loss and damage” agreement on providing aid to poorer countries that have suffered some of the worst effects of climate change, innovations in climate finance, and what new technologies will be needed to bring about carbon transition of hard-to-abate business sectors.
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Season 2 Episode 5
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November 8, 2022

Global credit conditions are on course for a rocky 2023

In this special episode to coincide with the publication of Moody’s 2023 Global Credit Conditions Outlook, we discuss how persistent inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth will cast a cloud over the borrowing environment next year. We look at the factors that make this turn in the credit cycle unique, and the likely path for corporate and sovereign defaults. We also examine why social challenges are a risk we are watching especially closely, and where there could be potential for positive economic surprises that would help stabilize credit conditions.
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Season 2 Episode 4
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November 3, 2022

Taking the temperature of emerging markets amid economic tumult

Long-time emerging markets investor Mark Mobius speaks with Atsi Sheth of Moody’s about the risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment, effects of the strong dollar, and the outlook for cryptocurrencies as an asset class. This interview took place on the sidelines of Moody’s recent South Africa Risk Summit in Johannesburg, and also touches on Dr. Mobius’s views on investing in Africa and how he thinks increased digitalization of economies will play a large role in improving governance frameworks across the continent.
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Season 2 Episode 3
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October 25, 2022

For banks, higher interest rates will have diminishing benefits

For banks in the US and Europe, this year’s sharp climb in interest rates has been positive for their performance, helping lift net interest income and net interest margins. But the higher rate environment could become unfavorable for banks as margin improvement begins to taper off and higher credit costs take hold. How are banks preparing? What do prior monetary policy cycles tell us about the correlation between higher interest rates and margin performance? And what happens if borrowers can no longer afford their higher debt-service obligations, especially if the economy weakens further?
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Season 2 Episode 2
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October 11, 2022

Who will be most vulnerable as Europe’s energy crunch deepens?

Early lights out at the Eiffel Tower. Lowered thermostats. Cold showers. Europe is bracing for a tough winter as it tries to scale back energy consumption to counter cuts in Russian gas flow and surging fuel prices. How are energy-intensive companies altering production to cope with the market disruption? What are the knock-on effects for other industries? And what policy paths are governments pursuing to soften the impact on households, and what are the risks?
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Season 2 Episode 1
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September 20, 2022

The future of work: destination unknown

More than two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many US office workers still are not back at their desks, as many have embraced work-from-home and other flexible work arrangements. How are commercial property owners, lenders and local governments adapting, and what does this mean for creditworthiness? What will it take to draw more workers back to the office? And how do the evolving workplace trends in the US compare with those in other parts of the world?
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Season 1 Episode 12
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June 14, 2022

Soaring inflation and rising interest rates temper global economic outlook

Growth of the G-20 economies will slow markedly this year after a strong rebound from the COVID-19 crisis in 2021, as high inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and central bank monetary policy has become more hawkish. How are the uncertain macro dynamics affecting the financing environment for corporate borrowers, and how vulnerable are lower-rated companies to a worsening economy? Is there a risk that central banks will overdo it and that higher interest rates become a catalyst for a recession? And why will the next few months be particularly critical in determining the path of the global economy?
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Season 1 Episode 11
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May 24, 2022

Cyber risk’s growing intersection with credit risk

Cybersecurity risk is evolving in novel ways, with increasing potential to cause significant economic disruption and financial losses for attack victims as hackers become more sophisticated. Which sectors are most vulnerable? What types of entities have the best and worst cyber defenses? And how are organizations managing cyber risks?
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Season 1 Episode 10
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May 3, 2022

No easy solutions to Europe’s energy security challenges

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed energy security to the top of the policy agenda in Europe, raising questions about whether the desire to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas will come at the expense of efforts to decarbonize the region’s economy. What are the options for European countries as they try to become more energy independent, and which countries are best placed to do so? And while there is no easy way to fill the energy gap in the short term, could the Russia-Ukraine crisis have the long-term effect of accelerating Europe’s pivot toward greater adoption of clean energy?
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Season 1 Episode 9
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April 12, 2022

Will rising food and fuel costs inflame social tensions?

Soaring food and energy prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are stoking inflation and reducing households’ purchasing power in many countries. How are governments and companies trying to address affordability concerns, particularly for the poorest members of society? What will be the impact on consumption and economic growth? And what role might diminished living standards play in fomenting social and political risks?
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Season 1 Episode 8
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March 22, 2022

Russia-Ukraine military conflict creates cascade of geopolitical risks

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fomenting new risks for the global economy and broader international relations. On this episode, a panel of Moody’s Investors Service analysts provide perspective on the spillover effects of the military conflict, from higher oil and food prices, to the growing number of refugees, and rising cybersecurity threats against critical infrastructure and other targets.
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Season 1 Episode 7
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March 8, 2022

Russia’s Ukraine invasion stirs new inflation worries

Soaring commodities prices in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine are raising new questions about where inflation is headed, and whether supply chain stresses will be further exacerbated. We examine the root causes of current inflationary trends and how central banks will try to tame it. We also discuss whether moderate levels of inflation could be positive for the economy and the financial sector.
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Season 1 Episode 6
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February 8, 2022

What’s driving China’s growth slowdown?

China was one of the few large economies to record growth during the pandemic crisis in 2020, but momentum has weakened in recent months. The loss of economic momentum comes as China has imposed strict COVID-19 lockdowns in some regions and its property sector is in the doldrums. What’s behind the recent slowdown and how is the world’s second-largest economy addressing its growth challenges? What is the effect on other economies? And how will the government’s pledges on multiple policy fronts – from reducing leverage to narrowing income inequality and accelerating the shift toward clean energy – reshape China’s economy over the long term?
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Season 1 Episode 5
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January 18, 2022

Central bank digital currencies: the future of cash?

Central banks around the world are studying and in some cases moving ahead with the creation of digital currencies that have the same value as physical cash. How do central bank-backed digital currencies work and how do they differ from other types of electronic financial assets such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins? Could central bank digital currencies improve access to the financial system and strengthen financial stability? And what kind of disruption will they bring for banks and other segments of the financial system?
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Season 1 Episode 4
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December 14, 2021

COVID-19 and inequality: same storm, different boats

The pandemic crisis has revealed how disparities in income, healthcare access and educational opportunity can amplify the damage of an economic shock. As policymakers globally look to address these issues through initiatives such as the Next Generation EU Fund, the proposed Build Back Better plan in the US and China’s Common Prosperity agenda, a key question is whether policies aimed at bridging wealth gaps can mitigate the negative economic consequences of widening inequality. Also, is the squeeze of the middle class in some countries spurring greater demands for change, and could it fuel social unrest? And could rising inflation exacerbate the problem? 
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Season 1 Episode 3
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November 9, 2021

New technologies will drive the world’s net-zero ambitions

Reaching net-zero carbon emissions targets will rely to a large extent on replacing fossil fuels with new innovations in areas such as hydrogen power, electric vehicle batteries, biofuels, and carbon capture and storage. Increased development of enabling technologies such as battery charging infrastructure will also play a big role. But do these technologies offer a realistic path toward helping countries meet their emissions targets? How quickly can they be scaled? And how will clean energy technology transform industries from airlines to utilities to automobiles in the coming decades?
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Season 1 Episode 2
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October 19, 2021

After COVID, what’s next for government debt?

Government indebtedness has surged as countries have battled COVID-19 and its economic fallout, following a decade of increased borrowing. Total debt across governments around the world soared to $83 trillion in 2020, up from $50 trillion in 2010. And this year, government debt is likely to exceed nonfinancial company debt for the first time in decades. What are the consequences of this borrowing binge for the broader economy? What happens when interest rates start to rise? And why is there such divergence between advanced and emerging market countries in how they are positioned to manage the situation?
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Season 1 Episode 1
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September 30, 2021

Storms, droughts and wildfires point to rising global climate risks

In our inaugural episode of The Big Picture podcast series, Michael Rowan of the Global Public Project and Infrastructure Finance team, Anne Van Praagh of the Sovereign team and Simon Harris of the Financial Institutions team share their perspectives on the increasing frequency of devastating climate events and how they affect debt issuers around the globe.
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Season 1 Episode 0
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September 16, 2021

Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture trailer

On Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture, hosts Sarah Carlson, William Foster and Jennifer Wong bring you insights from Moody’s analysts around the world on hot topics across fixed-income markets. Each episode will illuminate Moody’s thinking on the latest credit and economic developments, ranging from the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, to technological disruption, political shifts and climate change. Please join us as we explore what’s on the horizon for the global credit landscape.
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