FOCUS ON FINANCE

Anthony Moro, CEO of Provenance Blockchain Foundation, joins us to talk about the technology and infrastructure developments shaping the future of financial asset tokenization.

Moody’s analysts explore green finance, discussing greenwashing risk, the EU green loan market, and how clear standards and rules – and blockchain technology – could play a positive role.

Basel 3.1 reforms will lead banks to apply high haircuts to unsustainably high property values and adjust mortgage risk weights to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk loans.

As cyberattacks rise and AI poses new dangers, Moody’s analysts discuss banks’ own views of their cybersecurity defenses and explain the EU’s plan to rein in risks from third-party tech providers.

Our 2024 Banking System Outlooks show more European systems joining the US on negative as economies slow and loan performance weakens. China stays negative, while India is positive.

Swedish lender Klarna’s AI assistant is driving material credit improvement this year. In the US, disclosures from Wells Fargo point to what’s ahead for banks’ commercial real estate loan performance.

Over the next several years private credit in Europe will grow, largely because of companies’ substantial refinancing needs. But banks are already fighting to gain back market share.

We discuss the severe thunderstorms' rising insured costs. Plus: Earnings weakness in the Medicare Advantage business and US commercial real estate exposure of German banks.

Steve Tu, Farooq Khan and Petr Paklin of Moody's, with Joe Lyons of Bitsight, on how AI will change banks; On Fast Finance, we discuss Evergrande's liquidation and upcoming FHLBank reforms.

Cristiano Ventricelli explains how recent improvements to digital finance systems could help them gain scale. Plus, we discuss BlackRock’s recent acquisition and the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Our global outlook for the sector remains negative for 2024, but the picture for non-bank finance companies is more varied than a year ago, with easing conditions in some markets and businesses.

Weak results in personal lines drive the negative outlook for property and casualty insurance, while life insurance benefits from higher interest rates.

James Eck and Brandan Holmes explain how rising physical climate-related claims complicate insurers' risk management; Olivier Panis discusses benefits for banks of enhanced climate change reporting.

The boost banks have enjoyed for the last two years will start to fade as high rates translate into higher funding costs and lower growth. But the outlook for banks is not so gloomy everywhere.

Reduced economic growth could lower financial institutions’ profitability, but there are also opportunities to sell retirement products and new forms of insurance.

Moody’s analysts discuss how lenders are managing the risks created by the end of the low-interest-rate era, and explore the favorable funding and liquidity characteristics of universal banks.

Private credit lenders built stores of capital that we expect will be put to work competing with banks to fund a new wave of leveraged buyouts. In the first segment of this episode, we discuss LBO competition and the risks it poses. Later, our guest lays out the concentration of private credit among a handful of giant asset managers building their own, largely self-contained lending ecosystems.

Moody’s analysts C.J. Wong and Yulia Wan discuss ongoing real estate market weakness in China and Vietnam, and explain how the credit effects will differ in each country.

Moody’s analysts Marat Faritov and Cristiano Ventricelli discuss how digital bonds could reshape debt markets, and the hurdles to be overcome before the technology can be more widely adopted.

Moody’s analysts Laline Carvalho-Neff and James Eck explain how reinsurers have boosted their profitability, even as natural catastrophes have grown more frequent and more severe.

Moody’s analysts discuss how a rate rise would affect Japan’s banks, Swedish banks’ high exposure to indebted real estate firms, and the stability of Swiss domestic bank deposits.

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.

Steve Tu discusses FedNow, a new US digital payments system, and why it could exacerbate deposit flight risk for banks. Farooq Khan explains the risks of higher interest rates for UK mortgage lenders.

Moody’s analysts David Burger, Mark Wasden and Neal Epstein explain how differences in structure and asset risk give rise to divergent credit profiles among the three investment vehicles.

Moody's Marc Pinto talks to Guggenheim Partners Investment Management’s Anne Walsh about big risks – and opportunities – for insurers, asset managers and institutional investors.

US life insurers have significant commercial real estate exposure, mitigated by a low share of holdings in office properties and high share of investments in senior investment-grade fixed income.

Vladlen Kuznetsov explains why banks in emerging markets are exposed to environmental risks, and Laline Carvalho-Neff discusses global reinsurers' strong first-quarter results.

In this episode, we discuss China’s stabilizing property sales and improving funding conditions.Then at 9:00, we look at Chinese insurers’ and banks’ exposure to the country’s property sector.

Jerome Cheng and Tengfu Li discuss how China’s economic rebound will support residential mortgage-backed securities and a handful of Asia-Pacific banking systems with close ties to the country.

Jill Cetina explains the main risks we are watching for US banks following recent rating actions. Plus, a cross-regional look at how central bank digital currencies could transform payments.

Moody's analysts discuss high-profile departures from the Net Zero Insurance Alliance, plus increasing GCC bank mergers, and why Japan's largest banks can resist US banking sector stress.

Moody’s analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales’ effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes.

Moody’s analysts discuss the rescue of Credit Suisse, and explain why some fintechs have thrived even in adversity. Also, a look at the ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on CIS banks.

Moody’s analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe.

Moody's analysts discuss how emerging markets banks have evolved to compete with new entrants, and explain why fintechs globally are on shakier financial ground.

We explore this year’s outlook for crypto and digital asset firms, and check in on financial repercussions a year after Russia's seizure of leased aircraft.

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins explains what’s behind insurance outlooks in Europe. In Fast Finance: troubles in real estate extend to Vietnam’s banks, and a look at Indian banks’ exposure to Adani Group.

Tomoya Suzuki talks about the digital payments push in Japan, and Rebecca Tan explains why the outlook is brighter for India’s public sector banks.

Moody's analysts discuss crypto asset regulation, credit developments at Silvergate Bank and foreign currency fluctuation risks for emerging markets banks and Asia-Pacific financial institutions.

Bruno Baretta explains how weak macroeconomic conditions are increasing credit risk for finance companies globally despite a possible profitability boost for some companies from rising interest rates.

Claims inflation and higher reinsurance costs loom large in the outlook for P&C insurance, while life insurers see enough benefit from higher interest rates to offset economic turbulence, for now.

Against an uncertain global economic backdrop, hosts Carolyn Henson and Michael Porta talk to Moody’s analysts Edoardo Calandro, Rita Sahu and Nicholas Zhu about prospects for global banks in 202

Jill Cetina and David Fanger explain how this round of quantitative tightening will affect bank funding and capital. Plus, Coinbase faces higher risks, and Twitter’s lenders face markdowns.

Vincent Gusdorf, Fadi Massih and Warren Kornfeld discuss the aftermath of the FTX bankruptcy and explain how crypto finance risks could spill over into traditional financial institutions.

As COP 27 winds down, Shree Khare and Tomoya Suzuki discuss Japan's rising natural catastrophe risks, and Megan Fox and Brandan Holmes explain what's driving banks' and insurers' net zero plans.

Srikanth Vadlamani explains why Indian banks’ loans will perform well despite rising interest rates, and Eugene Tarzimanov discusses the threat to Asia-Pacific banks from China’s slowing economy.

Kelvin Kwok, Mattias Frithiof and Farooq Khan explain the implications of inflation and rising interest rates for Asia-Pacific insurers and Western European and UK banks.

James Eck explains that with insured loss estimates of up to roughly $70 billion, earnings of property insurers and reinsurers will fall sharply, and some reinsurers could face capital erosion.

Louise Welin and Maria Gillholm discuss difficulties ahead for Swedish mortgage borrowers and real estate companies, and implications for banks. Also, new business is slowing for US mortgage insurers.

Rajeev Bamra and Sadia Nabi discuss regulation of global cryptoassets and stablecoins in the US. Also: a proposal to clear certain Treasurys trades, and banks' risks from conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

C.J. Wong explains the forces behind Vietnamese banks’ credit strength, and Rebecca Tan discusses inflation's impact on banks in six member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Badis Shubailat and Tengfu Li discuss how high commodity prices are supporting the recovery of Islamic banks, and Alexandra Aspioti explains why GCC fund managers are optimistic.

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins explains why the outlook for global reinsurance is stable, despite higher natural catastrophe losses, and James Eck discusses the prospects for alternative capital.

Bernhard Held and Petter Bryman discuss the implications for certain European banking systems of a reduction in Russian energy supply, and Alessandro Roccati discusses recent credit developments at Credit Suisse following large losses.

Fabio Iannò explains why European banks will benefit from the ECB's recent increase in key interest rates, and Felipe Carvallo discusses how the sale of certain Citibanamex business operations will alter Mexico’s banking sector.

Stephen Tu explains why Apple’s new Pay Later initiative may have important implications for financial institutions; Saranga Ranasinghe and Frank Mirenzi tell us about future growth in and risks to Australia’s pension (“superannuation”) sector.

Yulia Wan and Sean Hung discuss the implications for financial institutions of China's policy focus on financial stability. Plus, Eugene Tarzimanov and Yaroslav Sovgyra discuss how inflation will affect banks in emerging economies.

Neal Epstein explains how comparatively strong credit performance and returns draw asset managers to private credit despite high borrower leverage. Warren Kornfeld and Clay Montgomery cover the growing role of non-banks, including BDCs, in the space.

Rajeev Bamra explains why crypto markets are unlikely to allow mass sanctions evasion. Plus, Sarah Hibler explains why Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds to uncertainty for cyber insurers in an already difficult operating environment.

Tom Aaron of the Public Finance team and Shachar Gonen of the Insurance team explore the reasons public pension funds and insurance companies have found private equity and private credit such compelling investments, and why public pension funds face higher risk than insurers from these assets.

As mental health and substance abuse problems grow sharply in the US, insurance analyst Dean Ungar explains how US health insurers are trying to break down the wall between medical health and mental health and better integrate the latter into their operations. Also in this episode, insurance analysts Frank Yuen, Soichiro Makimoto and Qian Zhu discuss updates to capital regimes in Asia-Pacific, and what it means for insurers in Japan, mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, China.

Financial Institutions team analysts Allen Tischler and Jasper Cooper talk about the effects of higher inflation on global banks, insurance companies and asset managers, and explain why the negatives outweigh the positives.

Analysts Olivier Panis, Bernhard Held and Antonello Aquino from the Financial Institutions team discuss the implications of a prolonged military conflict in Ukraine for banks and insurance companies, while Insurance analyst Laura Bazer focuses on the effects of long COVID claims on life insurers globally.

Banking analysts Louise Welin, Rita Sahu, Eugene Tarzimanov and Felipe Carvallo explain how global macroeconomic and geopolitical forces have shaped the outlooks for 32 of the world’s biggest banking systems, as the military conflict in Ukraine slows the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Felipe Carvallo of the Banking team explains how pension reform plans of Chile’s new young president could shake up banking and asset management. Plus, Banking team analyst Fadi Massih talks about how cryptocurrency is traceable, and what upcoming regulation means for cryptocurrency exchanges and other digital asset platforms.

Insurance team analyst Helena Kingsley-Tomkins discusses Tesla’s move into high-tech auto insurance and how it will affect the competitive landscape. Plus, Mark Wasden of the Banking team and Gideon Lubin of the Structured Finance team explain how sanctions on Russian businesses and assets will affect aircraft leasing companies and ABS backed by aircraft and related leases.

Yaroslav Sovgyra, Melina Skouridou and Olivier Panis of the Banking team explain how the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine has affected the credit strength of global, Western European, Russian and Ukrainian banks.

Insurance analysts Jasper Cooper and Christian Badorff discuss both direct and secondary risks global insurers are facing as the military conflict in Ukraine continues.

Analysts Megan Fox, Rokhaya Cisse and Mike Dion discuss cyber threats past and present, and steps regulators are taking to make sure financial institutions are prepared. Plus, Petr Paklin of the Banking team talks about the prospects for fast-growing all-digital banks, from market share to profits.

Moody’s banking analysts Constantinos Kypreos and Mik Kabeya join host Carolyn Henson to discuss prospects for banks in Africa’s five largest banking sectors after two difficult years.

Lev Dorf of the Banking team looks at why high use of dollars in many emerging markets poses rising risks for the country’s banks and where those risks are highest. Plus, Stephen Tu of the Financial Institutions group analyzes the Federal Reserve’s recent report and request for comment on the potential benefits of a US central bank digital currency.

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins and Paulette Truman of the Insurance team discuss how tech is transforming the insurance business, from connected devices that help prevent injuries and accidents to auto manufacturers entering insurance distribution. Plus, Sonny Hsu of the Banking team discusses the results of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s first climate stress test of banks, and Jasper Cooper of the Insurance team talks about the scope of insured losses from the recent Marshall wildfire in Colorado.

Frank Yuen and Laura Bazer explain why the outlook for life insurers worldwide is less bleak than it was a year ago. Plus, Bruce Ballentine and Benjamin Serra discuss the strengths that help insulate global property and casualty (P&C) insurers from higher claims as economies reopen.

Banking analysts Michael Rohr and Donald Robertson explain how our outlook has improved for banks worldwide. Plus, Banking team analyst Svetlana Pavlova discusses how demographic trends in emerging markets are driving a divergence in banks’ growth and profitability prospects.

Dominic Simpson and Neal Epstein of the Asset Management team discuss prospects for global asset managers in 2022, as the global economic recovery and demand for alternative and ESG investments drive industry growth. Meanwhile, Ceres Lisboa, Ashraf Madani and Eugene Tarzimanov of the Banking team explore how emerging markets banks will benefit from G20 economies’ recovery, strong global demand for commodities and a rise in interest rates.

Insurance analysts Dominic Simpson and Manoj Jethani discuss global insurers’ increasing investments in illiquid assets and why that’s mostly positive despite the risks. Plus, Fadi Massih of the Banking team talks about strengths and vulnerabilities in global banks’ management of cybersecurity risks.

Mark Wasden of the Banking team and Chris Padgett of the Corporate Finance team explain how as US private credit grows, there is greater risk of widespread market disruption should the economy falter. Plus, Insurance team analyst Shachar Gonen explains why long-term care insurers are getting a brief reprieve, and Fadi Massih of the Banking team talks about the new Bitcoin ETF and why it is credit negative for Coinbase.

Cybercrime has driven up demand for cyber insurance. But losses are on the rise, too, and some cyber events are uninsurable. How are insurers responding to higher losses, and what can be done about the kinds of risks that are too big for private insurers to cover? Plus, sales of alternative fuel vehicles worldwide are accelerating. What does it mean for the credit quality of auto finance captives, the companies that finance loans and leases on behalf of automakers?

Ahead of the COP 26 conference in Glasgow, analysts Lev Dorf, Brandan Holmes and Vanessa Robert explain why banks, insurance companies and asset managers are under pressure to reduce exposure to carbon-intensive industries. Indeed Moody's has estimated that G20 financial institutions are exposed to carbon transition risk to the tune of $22 trillion. However, financial institutions will need to play a vital role in financing the shift to net zero, and in this episode our team discuss what new areas of economic growth are emerging.

Peter Nerby, Olivier Panis and Shunsaku Sato explain how global systemically important banks are faring as the pandemic starts to recede. Dean Ungar discusses the implications for US health insurers should the Medicare hospital insurance trust fund run out of money. And David Yin tells us how a recent cryptocurrency ban in China is positive for financial institutions.

Stephen Tu, Melina Skouridou and Farooq Khan explain how four forces reshaping finance will likely reduce banks’ revenue from core activities and undermine their role as financial intermediaries. Plus, Alka Anbarasu explains why India’s banks will weather the stress from a COVID-19 resurgence, and Jasper Cooper gives an update on insured hurricane losses in the US.

Analyst Fadi Massih discusses the credit strengths and weaknesses of the crypto asset exchange.

The insurance group’s Helena Kingsley-Tomkins explains what’s driving the global reinsurance outlook shift to stable from negative. Plus, Young Kim tells us how evolving technology and rising fintech competition are transforming Korea’s insurance business.

As infections rise and overall vaccination rates remain low in Southeast Asian nations and India, loan performance will weaken as economic recoveries stall, although the effects will vary by country. However, government support and strong loss-absorbing buffers will support banks’ credit strength.

Tae Jong Ok looks at Kakao Bank’s rapid rise from its social media origins to one of Korea’s biggest retail lenders. Plus, Christian Badorff and Melina Skouridou talk about the insurance impact of recent heavy floods in Germany, and the European Central Bank’s plan to pilot a digital euro.

Dean Ungar diagnoses the causes of US health insurers’ evolution over the past decade, and discusses the benefits and risks for the sector’s credit strength. Plus, Guy Combot and Atsi Sheth talk about recent changes in Italian bank governance and the broader credit implications of increased gender diversity.

Rajeev Bamra and Steve Tu speak with Carolyn Henson about why stablecoin growth has put traditional financial institutions and bank regulators on the defensive. Meanwhile, David Fanger explains why large US banks will be able to distribute more to shareholders this year, and Marina Cremonese discusses money market funds’ readiness for the transition away from LIBOR.

Madhavi Bokil, Alexios Philippides and Laura Bazer explain how banks’ profit margins and US life insurers’ portfolio yields will benefit from rising inflation and a steeper yield curve in several advanced economies. Plus, Joe Pucella discusses the outlook for US commercial real estate lenders and Neal Epstein talks about Federal Reserve actions that helped money market funds stave off the risk of negative yields.

Manoj Jethani, Laura Bazer and Rory Callagy discuss the reasons for returning the outlooks for global and US life insurance and global asset management to stable from negative. Plus, James Eck updates us on Puerto Rico’s debt settlements.

Alberto Postigo and Alka Anbarasu discuss the threat of climate change to banks’ asset quality. Plus, Megan Fox and Steve Tu talk about the effects on banks and asset managers of the Biden administration’s new executive order on climate-related financial risk, and Sid Ghosh tells us whether businesses around the world can get insurance coverage for disrupted operations during the pandemic.

Vanessa Robert and Marina Cremonese of the Funds and Asset Management team discuss new money market fund regulations proposed in the US and EU after a material flight to quality shook short-term credit markets last year. Plus, Svetlana Pavolva of the Banking team explains the significant social risks facing banks in Commonwealth of Independent States countries.

Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy and Research team and Semyon Isakov of the Banking team discuss rising inflation in some key emerging markets. Plus, Felipe Carvallo and Mik Kabeya of the Banking team talk about slipping government support for banks in economies that are heavily dependent on oil.

Bob Garofalo and Laura Bazer of the Insurance team explain the drivers behind all the M&A transactions in the life insurance industry, and what they mean for credit when the buyers are private-equity firms. Plus, Donald Robertson of the Banking team and Jasper Cooper of the Insurance team answer questions about Archegos and the recent cyber attack on insurer CNA.

Fresh off the Asset Management team’s virtual conference, Rory Callagy highlights how asset managers are finding growth – sometimes through acquisitions – in ESG, alternative investments and software solutions. Plus Antonello Aquino of the Banking team discusses the growing environmental risks African banks confront.

In a special episode of our Focus on Finance podcast series, Stephen Long, Louise Lundberg and Eugene Tarzimanov of the Banking team join host Carolyn Henson to discuss the prospects for banks around the globe as government economic support measures start to unwind and banks brace for a substantial rise in loan defaults. Many economies are set to rebound this year but banks must factor in continuing uncertainty over the future course of the pandemic.

With cyber risk on the rise, Lesley Ritter of the Cyber Risk team and Megan Fox, Michael Dion and Rokhaya Cisse of the Financial Institutions team discuss our survey and findings on banks’, insurers’ and asset managers’ preparedness for a cyberattack.

Brandan Holmes of the Insurance team and James Leaton of the ESG team discuss why global regulators are zeroing in on financial sector climate risks. Plus, the Asset Management team’s Steve Tu talks about how and why US ESG investments are surging in popularity, and Francisco Uriostegui discusses the benefits and challenges for Mexican pension funds of incorporating ESG screening into investment decisions.

Donald Robertson and Fadi Massih of the Securities and Exchanges team size up the implications that the recent social media-powered short squeeze has for US retail brokers, market makers, clearinghouses and exchanges. Plus, Swen Metzler spotlights German banks’ pressing need to rein in costs, and Alka Anbarasu tells us which Indian banks will win the race to go digital.

A dwindling number of workers in developed economies will support a growing share of retirees, and growth and profitability are declining for banks, insurers and asset managers. Young Kim of the Insurance team and Tomoya Suzuki of the Banking team examine how South Korea’s insurers and Japan’s regional banks are turning demographics into opportunities, while Dean Ungar of the Asset Management team zeroes in on US asset managers’ future.

Lan Wang of the Banking team and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss why China’s move to open up its domestic financial markets to foreign securities firms potentially benefits all parties, despite operational hurdles. Plus, Marina Cremonese of the Asset Management team joins Lan to talk about the future for asset managers seeking to grow their businesses in China.

Donald Robertson and Ana Arsov of the Banking team explain how the lessons global investment banks learned from the financial crisis better prepared them to withstand coronavirus stresses, and how strong capital markets revenue buffered the large loan-loss provisions they booked during 2020. Plus, Mark Wasden and Bruno Baretta of the Banking team explore how coronavirus effects are driving the negative outlook for most global finance companies.

Laura Bazer and Dominic Simpson of the Insurance team and Greg Bauer and Sophia Lee of the Banking team discuss how a fragile economic recovery, low interest rates and uncertainty about renewal of government support measures are among the drivers of negative outlooks for global banks, life insurers and reinsurers. P&C insurers will benefit in the difficult operating environment from lower auto claims, strong capital, and the mandatory nature of certain products.

Rokhaya Cisse and Marina Cremonese of the Asset Management team explore why the pandemic fallout has dimmed revenue prospects and made growth harder for asset managers. Plus, Celina Vansetti-Hutchins looks at how a difficult operating environment and elevated asset risk are driving our negative outlook for financial institutions in emerging markets.​​​

Edoardo Calandro, David Fanger and Daniel Yu of the Banking team zero in on the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on bank loans in the UK, US and Australia. Plus, Shachar Gonen of the Insurance team and Keith Banhazl of the Structured Finance team look at how much the slowdown in commercial real estate will weaken US life insurers’ CMBS holdings.​

Banks will benefit from an increased customer base as accelerated digitalization makes financial services available to unbanked populations in emerging markets. But traditional banks face competition as big tech firms impinge on payment services and central banks explore creating their own digital currencies as a defensive move.​​​​​​​

​​Stefan Kahandaliyanage of the Insurance team lays out the risks US health insurers face from a policy drive toward a public insurance option. Plus, Simon Ainsworth and James Eck of the Insurance team discuss the latest developments in global insurers’ efforts to assess and manage climate risk. ​​​​​

As policy rates continue to decline globally, Banking team member Laurie Mayers examines the effect on UK banks, while Shunsaku Sato does so for Japanese banks and Farooq Khan for Brazilian banks. Plus, Olivier Panis of the Banking team and Stefan Kahandaliyanage of the Asset Management team update financial institutions’ readiness for the transition away from Libor in 2021.​​​

Peter Nerby and Michael Rohr of the Banking team discuss how global systemically important banks entered the coronavirus crisis with healthier balance sheets, capital and liquidity than before the last global downturn. Plus, Ceres Lisboa explains how Latin American banks risk a sharp deterioration in asset quality as payment deferrals and government aid lapse.​

From our Insurance team, James Eck explains why threats to profitability turned the outlook on global reinsurers negative, and Laura Bazer tells us how the coronavirus shock jolted global life insurers into a new, more digital future.

Antonello Aquino from the Insurance team explains why European insurers are giving back premiums now and might have to cover more claims later because of the pandemic. Plus, Banking team analyst Alka Anbarasu details the government support India’s public-sector banks will need to maintain capital strength as credit costs rise in COVID-19’s wake.​​​

Alessandro Roccati from the banking team explains how coronavirus-driven demand for contactless digital financial services, along with remote work, are raising the cyber threat to banks. Plus, Steve Tu of the asset management team looks at how the latest US government intervention in money markets could signal an eventual phaseout of institutional prime funds.