Rent to fall 1% to 3% at US and Europe REITs / REOCs in the next 12 – 18 months with empty cubicles pointing to problems for office landlords while structural shifts are accelerating for retail landlords
The Crossover Zone refers to ratings closest to the line between speculative grade and investment grade. Potential fallen angels have begun to ebb and potential rising stars continue to rise as major economies rebound with the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines. These trends should accelerate in the coming quarters.
Nearly 25% of China's GDP is from property and related sectors along its supply chain. The Chinese government closely regulates the property sector, through policy and control over funding, to ensure its long-term stability and to contain risks to the financial system
Regional and local governments in emerging markets generally report weaker infrastructure and higher levels of poverty and inequality than their advanced economy peers. Given their limited capacity to address these challenges, we expect that social considerations will continue to weigh on their growth and financial metrics.
Physical climate risk is broadly credit negative for sovereigns, particularly for emerging markets with climate-dependent economic structures and low-quality infrastructure and healthcare systems. Many have begun to take measures to increase climate resiliency, but fiscal and institutional constraints may slow adaptation efforts, which have yet to be widely tested.
Recovery in credit quality underway; corporate rating actions reveal a thoughtful and measured approach to credit
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The number of downgrades each month has dropped from a peak in April 2020, and rating activity is now more normal. Most rating actions are affirmations, and the trend is for more stable and positive outlooks as credit conditions improve. Looking ahead, reopening economies and business model changes are in focus.
Climate change, biodiversity loss, COVID-19 and protests against inequality are shifting the landscape for investors at an unprecedented rate.
Regional economic disparities are accelerating as the US recovers from the coronavirus-induced recession. On average, cities located in the fastest-recovering metro areas will see stronger tax base and revenue growth than their peers in slower-to-recover regions.
Recovery in credit quality under way; corporate rating actions reveal a thoughtful and measured approach to credit
